Rub-a-dub-dub, born in a tub

Please pardon the irreverent title to this post. I'm just trying to get your attention, not to offend. What I am alluding to in this case is baptismal regeneration, or being born again by being baptized.

Catholics and many Protestants believe that the various references to being baptized by water and the Spirit (as in John 3:5) mean the rite of baptism; i.e., that a person is born again, born from above, or spiritually regenerated by being baptized, presumably by some suitably credentialed church official. A defense of this interpretation can be found at http://www.catholic.com/tracts/are-catholics-born-again.

I won't go into a lengthy critique of the Roman Catholic position, because I don't want to get into a nit-picking quarrel with Catholic readers. I'll simply revert to my 'theology from the ground up' approach and note the difficulties I have with it:

1. Many of the passages cited refer to both believing and being baptized. Other scriptures dealing with spiritual regeneration speak only of believing. I'm not sure how a newborn is supposed to exercise any genuine belief in something as profound as God's saving grace.
2. Water is used in so many metaphorical ways in both testaments of the Bible. It has long been a symbol of purification. But rites themselves (animal sacrifices, ablutions, etc.) are always dismissed in the Scriptures if there is not genuine belief present.
3. Many people have looked to God for forgiveness very much at the last minute; e.g., on their deathbed, in an accident where they subsequently succumb to their injuries, in situations where baptism might be impossible. Would God withhold his forgiveness and acceptance because there was no handy priest lurking nearby and suitably equipped? If not, then why is water baptism actually needed?
4. Some of the world's most infamous people were baptized as infants; e.g., Hitler, Stalin, Castro. While the individuals cited as examples eventually renounced their beliefs, others whose lives were very much at variance with their professed faith continued with the religious rites throughout their lives; e.g., Robert Mugabe, many prominent mafiosi, Joseph Kennedy. 

I'm not the first person to raise objections along these lines and I won't be the last. I'm sure that thoughtful Catholics have gone through them and found satisfying responses. My biggest problem is that God would insist on something as cumbersome and arbitrary as a religious rite in order to confer his love, forgiveness, and acceptance. Consider this from the Orthodox Church:

The Orthodox Church makes no judgment concerning the efficacy or validity of baptisms performed by other denominations, as regards people who are members of those respective denominations. The precise status and significance of such baptisms has not been revealed by God to the Orthodox Church; however, as a practical matter, they are treated as non-efficacious unless and until the person joins the Orthodox Church (see http://orthodoxwiki.org/Baptism).

Relying on a rite, done the proper way by the right church official, stacks the deck against too many people, just as does the evangelical insistence on specific knowledge of the salvation message. It still means that most of the world's inhabitants won't make it into the Kingdom for reasons completely beyond their control.